India and Pakistan

Monday May 27, 2002

'3m Would Die In Nuke War'

At least three million people would die in a 'limited' nuclear war between Pakistan and India.

Another 1.5m people would be seriously injured if both countries used just a tenth of their nuclear capabilities on 10 of their largest countries, according to a study published in New Scientist magazine

Cancers

But the two figures would rocket from the effects of cancers, and the damage to hospitals, water and energy supplies nuclear strikes would cause.

The two nuclear neighbours are locked in a tense standoff over the disputed Kashmir region.

Analysts warn that the pair are likely to become involved in some kind of military confrontation before the end of the year.

Pakistan is estimated to have 25 nuclear warheads and India double that amount.

The Institute for Science and International Security in Washington DC suggests that India has about 65 warheads while Pakistan has around 40.

Cities

The US and Asian nuclear researchers investigated the impact of 10 explosions similar to that detonated by the US over the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945.

They assumed that five 15-kilotonne bombs exploded 600 metres above Bangalore, Bombay, Calcutta, Madras and New Delhi in India, while another five explode above Faisalabad, Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi in Pakistan.

They found that hundreds of thousands of people would be killed or badly injured in every city.

Around 2.6 million would be killed of injured in in India and 1.8 million in Pakistan.

Escalation

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"It is imperative that the two countries not go to war - however limited in scale. Even the most local conflicts have the potential to escalate into a full-scale war, possibly nuclear," M V Ramana one of the researchers from Princeton University told New Scientist.

Researchers warn that in certain scenarios the whole nuclear stockpiles could be fired at the same time, especially if commanders panic if there is a communications breakdown.

India is more likely to fall victim to radioactive dust than India because of the prevailing west winds, the magazine says.

Source:Yahoo News

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